Psychology

The enemy lives
inside your head.

A sound model with poor psychology produces the same result as no model at all. Understanding cognitive bias is not optional — it is the difference between extracting edge and destroying it.

Bias 01
The Gambler's Fallacy

The belief that past independent events influence future independent events. After five losing bets, the next bet is not "due" to win. Each event is statistically independent. The coin has no memory. The market has no memory. Your losing streak has no predictive power over the next outcome.

Each bet is independent. A run of losses tells you nothing about the next result.
Bias 02
Loss Aversion

Losses feel approximately twice as painful as equivalent gains feel pleasant. This asymmetry causes rational investors to make irrational decisions: cutting winners too early, holding losers too long, and abandoning sound strategies during normal drawdowns.

The pain of a £100 loss is felt as approximately £200 of gain. Account for this when reviewing decisions.
Bias 03
Outcome Bias

Judging the quality of a decision by its outcome rather than the process used to make it. A correct decision that produces a bad outcome is still a correct decision. An incorrect decision that produces a good outcome is still incorrect.

Judge decisions by the information available at the time, not by what happened next.
Bias 04
Recency Bias

Overweighting recent events when forming expectations. After a winning run, confidence inflates. After a losing run, confidence collapses — the strategy gets abandoned exactly when it should be trusted most.

Your last 10 results are noise. Your last 500 are signal.
Bias 05
Confirmation Bias

Seeking information that confirms existing beliefs while ignoring contradictory evidence. The antidote is structured pre-mortems: before placing a bet, build the strongest possible case against it.

For every bet you place, ask: what would have to be true for this to be wrong?